For the full source data behind this post, hit the S&P/Case-Shiller website. For a more detailed explanation of how the Case-Shiller Home Price Index is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – October data is released in December).

Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the Bay Area* as of October:

Nineteen of the twenty metro areas tracked by Case-Shiller saw a decrease in their HPI between September and October (vs. eighteen from August to September): Only Phoenix saw an increase. Wait, Phoenix? Yup, Phoenix. Atlanta fell the most in October (again), falling a whopping 5.0% in a single month.

Here’s a look at the latest local tiered data, back through 2000:

And here’s a closer look at the recent changes, with the vertical and horizontal axes zoomed in to show just the last year:

Only the Bay Area’s low tier fell in October, but the other two tiers were flat and just barely up. Month to month, the low tier was down 0.9%, the middle tier was flat, and the high tier increased 0.3%.

In this next chart, I’ve visualized the month to month trends of all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities. Green and above the horizontal axis if they were increasing in the month charted, red and below the axis if they were decreasing. I’ve excluded 2000 through 2004 since they looked largely the same as 2005 (mostly green).

Just four months ago, all twenty cities saw month to month gains. Now just one is not the red.

Here’s a chart of Case-Shiller HPIs for all the markets that Redfin serves:

Here’s our peak decline chart, in which we line up the peak Case-Shiller HPI value for each of Redfin’s markets, so we can see how long each market has been declining, and how much it has dropped from the peak.

Two cities hit new post-peak lows in October: Atlanta at 33.2% off peak and Las Vegas at 60.7% off peak.

Methodology: The Case-Shiller index tracks price changes in sets of homes of similar size and style to better determine changes in what people are willing to pay for the same home over time. If data is available from an earlier transaction for the same home, the two sales are paired and treated as a “repeat sale.” Repeat sales that are too far apart, sales between family members, lot splits, remodels, and property type changes (e.g. from single-family to condos) are excluded from the calculations. All remaining repeat sales are totaled together and weighted based on the time between each sale, then the data for the most recent three months is averaged together to create a given month’s index value (i.e. – September’s index represents the average of the data from July through September).

The three price tiers plotted in the charts below simply represent the top, middle, and bottom third of all sales, based on the initial sale price. In other words, if there were 3,000 sales in the three-month period, 1,000 of them would be in the low tier, 1,000 in the middle tier, and 1,000 in the high tier, by definition.

*[Case-Shiller defines the San Francisco Bay Area as the San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area, which includes all of the following counties: Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, San Francisco, and San Mateo.]

For the full source data behind this post, hit the S&P/Case-Shiller website. For a more detailed explanation of how the Case-Shiller Home Price Index is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – September data is released in November).

Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the Bay Area* as of September:

Seventeen of the twenty metro areas tracked by Case-Shiller saw a decrease in their HPI between August and September (vs. eleven from July to August): Only Washington DC, New York, and Portland rose. Atlanta fell the most in September, falling a whopping 5.9% in a single month.

Here’s a look at the latest local tiered data, back through 2000:

And here’s a closer look at the recent changes, with the vertical and horizontal axes zoomed in to show just the last year:

All three of the Bay Area’s tiers fell in September, with the low tier losing the most ground. Month to month, the low tier was down 2.2%, the middle tier fell 1.1%, and the high tier decreased 0.9%.

In this next chart, I’ve visualized the month to month trends of all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities. Green and above the horizontal axis if they were increasing in the month charted, red and below the axis if they were decreasing. I’ve excluded 2000 through 2004 since they looked largely the same as 2005 (mostly green).

Just three months ago, all twenty cities saw month to month gains. Now only three have avoided falling into the red.

Here’s a chart of Case-Shiller HPIs for all the markets that Redfin serves:

Here’s our peak decline chart, in which we line up the peak Case-Shiller HPI value for each of Redfin’s markets, so we can see how long each market has been declining, and how much it has dropped from the peak.

Three cities hit new post-peak lows in September: Phoenix at 55.9% off peak, Atlanta at 29.7% off peak, and Las Vegas at a mind-blowing 60.0% off peak.

Methodology: The Case-Shiller index tracks price changes in sets of homes of similar size and style to better determine changes in what people are willing to pay for the same home over time. If data is available from an earlier transaction for the same home, the two sales are paired and treated as a “repeat sale.” Repeat sales that are too far apart, sales between family members, lot splits, remodels, and property type changes (e.g. from single-family to condos) are excluded from the calculations. All remaining repeat sales are totaled together and weighted based on the time between each sale, then the data for the most recent three months is averaged together to create a given month’s index value (i.e. – September’s index represents the average of the data from July through September).

The three price tiers plotted in the charts below simply represent the top, middle, and bottom third of all sales, based on the initial sale price. In other words, if there were 3,000 sales in the three-month period, 1,000 of them would be in the low tier, 1,000 in the middle tier, and 1,000 in the high tier, by definition.

*[Case-Shiller defines the San Francisco Bay Area as the San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area, which includes all of the following counties: Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, San Francisco, and San Mateo.]

For the full source data behind this post, hit the S&P/Case-Shiller website. For a more detailed explanation of how the Case-Shiller Home Price Index is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – August data is released in October).

Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the Bay Area* as of August:

Ten of the twenty metro areas tracked by Case-Shiller saw a decrease in their HPI between July and August (vs. two from June to July): Phoenix and Las Vegas. Washington DC. saw the biggest increase this month, followed closely behind by Detroit and Chicago.

Here’s a look at the latest local tiered data, back through 2000:

And here’s a closer look at the recent changes, with the vertical and horizontal axes zoomed in to show just the last year:

The Bay Area’s low and middle tiers both took a hit in August, but the high tier was flat. Month to month, the low tier was down 1.5%, the middle tier fell 0.7%, and the high tier was flat.

Here’s a new chart for you. In this one, I’ve visualized the month to month trends of all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities. Green and above the horizontal axis if they were increasing in the month charted, red and below the axis if they were decreasing. I’ve excluded 2000 through 2004 since they looked largely the same as 2005 (mostly green).

The effects of 2009′s homebuyer tax credit are dramatically visible in this chart, as is the fairly strong spring we had this year, hitting 20 cities increasing for the first time since July 2005. However, the sudden drop-off of month-over-month gains in August’s data is interesting, since during a “normal” year we wouldn’t expect to see this many cities in the red until December or January. I think this indicates that there is still quite a bit of weakness in home prices.

Here’s a chart of Case-Shiller HPIs for all the markets that Redfin serves:

Here’s our peak decline chart, in which we line up the peak Case-Shiller HPI value for each of Redfin’s markets, so we can see how long each market has been declining, and how much it has dropped from the peak.

Only one of the twenty cities tracked by Case-Shiller hit a new post-peak low as of August: Las Vegas (again), which is now at 59.5% off its peak value. Dallas still easily wins the prize for the smallest decline, coming in at just 7.3% off its peak value.

Methodology: The Case-Shiller index tracks price changes in sets of homes of similar size and style to better determine changes in what people are willing to pay for the same home over time. If data is available from an earlier transaction for the same home, the two sales are paired and treated as a “repeat sale.” Repeat sales that are too far apart, sales between family members, lot splits, remodels, and property type changes (e.g. from single-family to condos) are excluded from the calculations. All remaining repeat sales are totaled together and weighted based on the time between each sale, then the data for the most recent three months is averaged together to create a given month’s index value (i.e. – September’s index represents the average of the data from July through September).

The three price tiers plotted in the charts below simply represent the top, middle, and bottom third of all sales, based on the initial sale price. In other words, if there were 3,000 sales in the three-month period, 1,000 of them would be in the low tier, 1,000 in the middle tier, and 1,000 in the high tier, by definition.

*[Case-Shiller defines the San Francisco Bay Area as the San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area, which includes all of the following counties: Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, San Francisco, and San Mateo.]

This month we rolled out a new and improved version of our monthly insider report. “But where is it,” you ask. Ahh, well this new report is available via email-only, and was sent out to a group of registered users who have saved searches or favorites in select neighborhoods.

We’ll be expanding the report to include more neighborhoods every month, so if you want to make sure you get it when it comes to your ‘hood, just make sure you’re signed up for our newsletters (check the “Redfin Announcements” box in your Account Settings), and save a favorite home or a search. That’s it, you’re signed up!

Here on the blog we will continue posting the “lite” version of our monthly report, including our Redfin Heat Index, the heat map, and the hottest / coldest neighborhoods for the foreseeable future. So, let’s get into it.

First up is our national Redfin Heat Index* ranking table at right. San Francisco moved up a few spots on the list. As home price losses tapering off, San Francisco’s Heat Index increased six points, bumping the city from #5 in August to #3 in September.

Washington DC continues to be the hottest market in the nation, while Long Island is still pulling up the rear with falling prices and a dramatic 11.1 months of supply. Yikes!

Next up, let’s have a look at an update to our interactive Redfin Heat Index map broken down by zip code, based on September data. Note that we only calculate the Redfin Heat Index for zip codes with at least 20 sales in September 2011 and September 2010, and as we head into the winter that means more and more zip codes will be grey with “not enough data.”

All righty, that’s it for this month. Stay tuned as our new and improved local Insider Report makes its way to your neighborhood.

As usual, you can download our comprehensive spreadsheet and dig into the data for yourself. Inside you’ll find county, city, and neighborhood information galore. You can also liven up the place by posting a comment below.

• MOS = Months of Supply: End of Month Inventory / Closed Sales in the Month
• $YOY = Year-over-year change in the median price per square foot.
• Heat Index = ((MOS – 6.0) * 7) + (($YOY – 5%) * 2) + 75

It’s time for our monthly check-in of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (HPI). The Case-Shiller data is generally considered to be the most reliable measure of overall home price changes for a region, since they only consider repeat sales of homes when calculating their index, instead of looking at all the homes that sold in a given month.

For the full source data behind this post, hit the S&P/Case-Shiller website. For a more detailed explanation of how the Case-Shiller Home Price Index is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – July data is released in September).

Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the Bay Area* as of July:

Only two of the twenty metro areas tracked by Case-Shiller saw a decrease in their HPI between June and July (vs. none from May to June): Phoenix and Las Vegas. Weirdly, Detroit saw the biggest increase, followed by Minneapolis.

Here’s a look at the latest local tiered data, back through 2000:

And here’s a closer look at the recent changes, with the vertical and horizontal axes zoomed in to show just the last year:

Las Vegas’ low and high tiers rose in July, while the middle tier lost a bit of ground. Month to month, the low tier was up 0.8%, the middle tier fell 1.0%, and the high tier increased 0.5%.

Here’s a chart of Case-Shiller HPIs for all the markets that Redfin serves:

Here’s our peak decline chart, in which we line up the peak Case-Shiller HPI value for each of Redfin’s markets, so we can see how long each market has been declining, and how much it has dropped from the peak.

Only one of the twenty cities tracked by Case-Shiller hit a new post-peak low as of July: Las Vegas, which is now at 59.3% off its peak value. Dallas easily wins the prize for the smallest decline, coming in at just 7.5% off its peak value.

Methodology: The Case-Shiller index tracks price changes in sets of homes of similar size and style to better determine changes in what people are willing to pay for the same home over time. If data is available from an earlier transaction for the same home, the two sales are paired and treated as a “repeat sale.” Repeat sales that are too far apart, sales between family members, lot splits, remodels, and property type changes (e.g. from single-family to condos) are excluded from the calculations. All remaining repeat sales are totaled together and weighted based on the time between each sale, then the data for the most recent three months is averaged together to create a given month’s index value (i.e. – September’s index represents the average of the data from July through September).

The three price tiers plotted in the charts below simply represent the top, middle, and bottom third of all sales, based on the initial sale price. In other words, if there were 3,000 sales in the three-month period, 1,000 of them would be in the low tier, 1,000 in the middle tier, and 1,000 in the high tier, by definition.

*[Case-Shiller defines the San Francisco Bay Area as the San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area, which includes all of the following counties: Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, San Francisco, and San Mateo.]

In previous summer months we’ve had plenty to report, but this summer is like watching water come to a boil.

Between upcoming changes in lending practices and the stagnantly low inventory (still), we are seeing very little change in the Bay Area market. In fact, many buyers have taken a break altogether.

To take a deeper look at what’s going on, we’ve decided to mix things up a bit with a sneak peek at the Redfin Heat Index (Beta)*.

For starters, we developed the table at right, which includes our heat ranking for every market where Redfin collects real-time sales data.

It’s interesting to see that San Francisco has the lowest months of supply of any Redfin market. This means that even if buyers back off, the current supply will still probably get eaten up by investors alone.

But why stop with tables when we can show you maps? We crunched the numbers for the entire Bay Area to produce an interactive Redfin Heat Index map, broken down by zip code. Just click on the image below to look at zip codes where you’re searching.

Bay-Area Heat Map by Zip Code

Read on for all the usual stats…

Inventory Continues to Drop

Change in # of Houses for Sale on July 31, 2011

Although prices are still falling over most of the Bay Area, buyers remain hopeful that new listings will appear. The monumental lack of inventory is pushing prices upward, but that momentum will evaporate if buyers lose steam.

“In San Francisco, we saw inventory remain stagnant as buyers tried to convince themselves they could handle properties with major challenges, or jumped head-first into bidding wars,” says San Francisco Redfin agent Sean Sullivan. “I secured a turnkey home for one client after a bidding war involving four offers — two of them all-cash. We won out by being the highest bid, but just barely.”

Sales Down Across All Six Counties

Change in # of Houses That Sold in July 2011

Oakland/Berkeley Redfin agent Mark Biggins gives his perspective on the numbers: “July seemed to be eerily quiet in terms of offer activity. In addition to the continued lack of inventory, recent developments in the economy and lending industry seemed to keep buyers on the sidelines. The upcoming reduction of the maximum loan amount will almost certainly compound the recent slowdown in offer activity, particularly among high-end homes.”

“Throughout the month of July our market has proven to be slower than desired,” agrees Redfin Livermore/Pleasanton agent Amber Zahn. “Many buyers are concerned about the ongoing state of the economy, and are hesitant to make any quick moves. Despite the fairly consistent housing market in San Ramon/Danville throughout the year, buyers here have started disappearing over the past month.”

Prices Down from Last Year in 5 of 6 Counties

The lack of inventory caused prices to rise in some areas, but overall prices are down from last year in every county except Santa Clara.

Change in Median Price of Houses That Sold in July 2011

That’s it for this month! Download our comprehensive spreadsheet and dig into the data for yourself! Inside you’ll find county, city, and neighborhood information galore. You can also liven up the place by posting a comment below.

Best,
Charmaine Frank, North Bay Area Manager

*Methodology

The Redfin Heat Index (Beta) uses listings, sales, and price changes to determine the relative “heat” of a given real estate market.  We set a baseline Heat Index of 75.0 at 6.0 months of supply and +5% price change year-over-year.

Every percentage point increase in prices above the 5% baseline will increase the heat index by two points, every percentage point decrease in prices below the 5% baseline will decrease the heat index by two points.

Every one month of supply increase above the 6.0 baseline will decrease the heat index by seven points, every one month of supply decrease below the 6.0 baseline will increase the heat index by seven points.

Here’s the formula:

MOS = Months of Supply: End of Month Inventory / Closed Sales in the Month
$YOY = Year-over-year change in the median price per square foot.
Heat Index = ((MOS-6.0) * -7) + (($YOY – 5%) * 2) + 75

For the full source data behind this post, hit the S&P/Case-Shiller website. For a more detailed explanation of how the Case-Shiller Home Price Index is calculated, check out their methodology pdf. Also remember that the data released on the last Tuesday of a given month is for the period two months prior (i.e. – May data is released in July).

Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the Bay Area* as of May:

Only three of the twenty metro areas tracked by Case-Shiller saw a decrease in their HPI between April and May (down from 7 in April and 18 in March). Boston ousted DC for the biggest increase, gaining 2.7% on the month. Only Tampa, Las Vegas, and Detroit continued to fall.

Here’s a look at the latest local tiered data, back through 2000:

And here’s a closer look at the recent changes, with the vertical and horizontal axes zoomed in to show just the last year:

All three of the Bay Area’s price tiers had a strong showing in May. Month to month, the low tier was up 1.1%, the middle tier rose 1.3%, and the high tier increased 1.0%.

Here’s a chart of Case-Shiller HPIs for all the markets that Redfin serves:

Here’s our peak decline chart, in which we line up the peak Case-Shiller HPI value for each of Redfin’s markets, so we can see how long each market has been declining, and how much it has dropped from the peak.

Just three of the twenty cities tracked by Case-Shiller hit another new post-peak low as of May as the 20-city composite ticked up again, hitting its highest point since January.

Methodology: The Case-Shiller index tracks price changes in sets of homes of similar size and style to better determine changes in what people are willing to pay for the same home over time. If data is available from an earlier transaction for the same home, the two sales are paired and treated as a “repeat sale.” Repeat sales that are too far apart, sales between family members, lot splits, remodels, and property type changes (e.g. from single-family to condos) are excluded from the calculations. All remaining repeat sales are totaled together and weighted based on the time between each sale, then the data for the most recent three months is averaged together to create a given month’s index value (i.e. – September’s index represents the average of the data from July through September).

The three price tiers plotted in the charts below simply represent the top, middle, and bottom third of all sales, based on the initial sale price. In other words, if there were 3,000 sales in the three-month period, 1,000 of them would be in the low tier, 1,000 in the middle tier, and 1,000 in the high tier, by definition.

*[Case-Shiller defines the San Francisco Bay Area as the San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area, which includes all of the following counties: Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, San Francisco, and San Mateo.]

Big News Bay Area Redfinnians!

Redfin’s San Francisco engineers just launched a mobile application for Android phones! It’s already one of the top-rated real estate apps, and Android traffic is shooting through the roof.

We’re just now starting to build an iPad app, so if you’d like to join our San Francisco team to help out, apply here or just write back. The whole company meanwhile just set new records for monthly revenues and profits.

As for the Bay Area real estate market, we’re still in the wide Sargasso sea of low prices, low inventory and low sales volume. Sellers are waiting for better prices, and buyers are waiting for better inventory. So here in the middle of the summer, the market is quite still. We think that’s going to change soon.

Prices Up in Five of Six Counties

As you often see at this time of year, Bay Area prices firmed up in June, with five of six counties reporting price increases:

Change in Median Price of Houses That Sold in June 2011

Compared to last year, the numbers are still down almost everywhere except Marin and Santa Clara counties. But most of the past year’s loss came in the last five months of 2010, right after state and federal tax credits expired.

Recent trends have been more hopeful, with prices rising for the past three months, but we can’t really call it a trend until August, when seasonal demand begins to tail off.

Multiple Offers Everywhere Except the South Bay

According to Martin Hendren, Redfin’s Walnut Creek agent, three out of four East Bay transactions are now bidding wars. The same is true of San Francisco and the Peninsula, especially in areas like Cupertino where schools are strong.

Plenty of buyers are getting frustrated. “I just had a buyer yesterday ask about broadening his search to homes that might need a little fixing up,” said Chelsea Bass, a Redfin agent in San Francisco. “He has been bidding on turn-key homes that ended up selling for $100,000 above their asking price.”

Flippers Getting Aggressive in the South Bay

But the South Bay is still a buyer’s market. “South Bay buyers are taking their time and being picky about which houses to make offers on,” said Brad Le, the leader of Redfin’s Peninsula team. “One new development is that we’re seeing a lot more flipped homes selling quickly. Investors are fixing these properties up and dialing in the pricing so that they’re hard to pass up.”

Inventory Off by 15% – 25% From Last Year

The problem almost everywhere is there’s not enough inventory. The number of homes for sale has declined from already low levels in May, and is currently 15% – 25% off where it was last year:

Change in # of Houses for Sale on June 30th 2011

Banks Hesitant to Foreclose

A big reason for the drop in the East Bay is the banks, who are holding thousands of Bay Area foreclosures off the market until the robo-signing litigation blows over. With prices 40% off their 2006 peak, traditional sellers haven’t exactly rushed to fill the gap.

What may loosen things up on the Peninsula and in the city is the IPO market, as lots of local venture capitalists and entrepreneurs have recently been looking to move up.

The Goods Are Odd, And the Odds Aren’t Always Good

For now though, the goods on Redfin’s website are pretty odd, and even then the odds aren’t good. “Buyers are just waiting for new listings,” said Redfin agent Chelsea Bass. “In the meantime, they’re looking at alternative neighborhoods and buying unconventional properties. Four of the last five offers I’ve written have been on foreclosed homes, or estate sales, or short sales where the owner’s bank had to agree to take a loss on the mortgage.”

Mark Biggins, a Redfin agent in Berkeley and Oakland, reports that most of his buyers have put their home-search on hold until more listings hit the market. And Redfin agent Regina Puzon notes that the problem in the upper Peninsula is as much the quality of the listings as the quantity. “With most of the good stuff off the market, many of my buyers aren’t willing to get in a bidding war for a property that has lots of problems.”

A Vapor Pocket in Summer Sales Volume

With so little good inventory on the shelves, it comes as no surprise that sales have been slow. In the first two weeks of June, the stock market dropped and Redfin customers signing offers declined a terrifying 42% in the Bay Area, which shows just how fragile consumer confidence is these days. Since offers take 45 days to close, we expect that to show up in July closings.

Change in # of Houses That Sold in June 2011

According to Amber Zahn, leader of Redfin’s East Bay teams, “even the busiest East Bay towns, like San Ramon, have slowed down quite a bit over the last four weeks.” In late June and early July, offer volume has since returned to May levels, which suggests that August may be a decent month. The number of customers touring homes in the past two weeks has increased 13% from where it was at the beginning of June, suggesting that early-stage demand is ramping up again, which you don’t always see this time of year.

So we go into July waiting for the other shoe to drop, but feel encouraged about August and September. The full spreadsheet, with numbers on almost every neighborhood and city in the nine counties of the Bay Area, is available here. If you have any questions or comments — about prices, the process, local dynamics, or what neighborhoods to look at, or just how to get started — you can post them below, or just feel free to reach out to any of the agents cited in this report:

• Mark Biggins, Berkeley and Oakland, Mark.Biggins@redfin.com
• Martin Hendren, Walnut Creek, Martin.Hendren@redfin.com
• Amber Zahn, East Bay, Amber.Zahn@redfin.com
• Chelsea Bass, San Francisco, Chelsea.Bass@redfin.com
• Regina Puzon, Upper Peninsula, Regina.Puzon@redfin.com
• Brad Le, Peninsula, Brad.Le@redfin.com
• Miawand Bayan, Fremont, Miawand.Bayan@redfin.com
• Frank Wong, San Jose, Frank.Wong@redfin.com

Thanks as always for your Redfin support, and don’t forget to download that Redfin Android app.

Best, Glenn

(And there was much rejoicing.)

Android fans have been very, very vocal about wanting their own Redfin app, and thanks to the hard work of a crack team of engineers, the day has arrived.

Go find out more! Go! Go you crazy kids! Be free!

Photo courtesy Stéfan via Flickr.