Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the Seattle area* as of September:

Eleven of the twenty metro areas tracked by Case-Shiller saw an increase in their respective seasonally-adjusted HPIs between August and September (down from sixteen in August). New York, Boston, Charlotte, Seattle, Dallas, Portland, Tampa, Las Vegas, and Cleveland all marked seasonally-adjusted drops month-to-month.

Here’s a look at Seattle’s latest tiered data, back through 2000:

All three tiers in Seattle declined in September, as whatever small effect the tax credit was having seems to have already worn off, even a good two months before the credit was originally set to expire.

Here’s a chart of Case-Shiller HPIs for all the markets that Redfin serves:

Here’s our peak decline chart, in which we line up the peak Case-Shiller HPI value for each of Redfin’s markets, so we can see how long each market has been declining, and how much it has dropped from the peak.

Here’s the flip side of the peak decline chart—a graph of just this year, indexed to January = 100%:

Seattle still seems to stand out quite a bit in that last chart. I guess we weren’t done declining, tax credit or not.

With the tax credit having been extended until the spring, and pretty much all the benefit having been squeezed from low rates and tax giveaways, it seems likely that we will see some price deterioration in the next few months as we head through winter. Beyond that is anybody’s guess.

*[Case-Shiller defines Seattle as the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Metropolitan Statistical Area, which includes all of King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties.]

Come have a drink on us, talk local real estate and meet a few of our West Seattle agents.   For planning purposes, please let us know if you can make it, but if you’re in the neighborhood feel free to just stop by.

Hope to see you there!

King County

• 12,321 homes were for sale, down from 14,655 in October 2008
• 2,234 homes sold, up from 1,722 in October 2008
• The median sales price was $349,950, down from $358,500 in October 2008

Snohomish County

• 5,171 homes were for sale, down from 6,760 in October 2008
• 825 homes sold, up from 613 in October 2008
• The median sales price was $280,000, down from $317,000 in October 2008

We get these numbers from the NWMLS.

Dig Deeper Into the Trends

These are county-level numbers, to see what’s happening in your neighborhood, check out our stats & trends pages.

Of the 2,200+ buyers agents who closed a deal in King & Snohomish Counties, the top five work at Redfin:

Three more of our Seattle-area agents closed deals in October:

When you work with Redfin, you work with some of the most successful and most active agents in the region. Our agents know what’s going on in the market right now because they spend all of their time serving our clients: touring homes, writing offers and closing deals.

These numbers come from the NWMLS, which tracks real estate transactions in Washington state. We ranked buyers’ agents in King & Snohomish Counties first by number of purchases of single-family homes and condominiums in October, then by total dollar amount. Here’s the spreadsheet we used with the agents’ rankings.

Our Clients Love Our Service

We survey every client and track every transaction in a central customer database. For the surveys we received in October from our clients in the Seattle area:

• 68 clients responded to our customer-satisfaction survey and posted a review online, up from 62 in September.
• 63 of those clients, or 93%, would recommend Redfin to a friend, down from 97% in September.

We ask customers to rate the likelihood that they would recommend Redfin to a friend on a 0-to-10 scale. Customers who rated 6 or higher count as people who would recommend Redfin to a friend.

The Basic Requirements

You qualify for the tax credit if the:

• Home you’re buying will be your primary residence
• Purchase price isn’t more than $800,000

This credit is not a loan; it’s yours, but keep in mind you have to live in your new home for three years. If you sell the home in less than three years, you’ll have to pay back the money.

What’s Changed?

With the new legislation, buyers have more time to find a home and more buyers are eligible for the tax credit:

• New deadline: To qualify, you need to be in contract with a seller by April 30th & close on the home by June 30th (The previous deadline was November 30, 2009).
• Not just for first-time buyers anymore: Home buyers who’ve owned and occupied a home for at least five consecutive years during the past eight years are eligible for a credit up to $6,500.
• Increased income limits: Individuals making less than $125,000 and couples making less than $225,000 are eligible (The limits used to be $75K & $150K).

First-time buyers are eligible for a credit up to $8,000 on homes purchased between January 1, 2009 and June 30, 2010. Qualified homeowners can a credit up to $6,500 on homes purchased between November 7, 2009 and June 30, 2010.

Bonus Link

You can check out the full text of the bill. Scroll about halfway down to sections 11 & 12:

• Sec. 11. Extension and Modification of First-Time Homebuyer Tax Credit.
• Sec. 12. Provisions to Enhance the Administration of the First-Time Homebuyer Tax Credit.

Check out our service area below:

If you buy or sell a home with a Redfin partner, at closing he or she will provide you with a credit equal to 15% of the gross buyer’s-agent commission, usually worth $1,000 – $2,000.

We put our partner agent applicants through the ringer to ensure that you’ll get great service:

• Interviewed in-person by a Redfin market manager
• Completed at least 15 transactions in your area and 5 in the last 12 months
• Gave us email addresses to survey the clients they represented in the last 18 months
• Agreed to survey every new client and publish every review
• Paid based on customer satisfaction; removed from the program for bad reviews

Meet Our Tacoma & Pierce County Agents

	Mary Thompson-Bacho Serving Tacoma, Federal Way, South and East Pierce County Homes Closed: 30+
	Jennifer Hamilton Serving Greater Tacoma and Federal Way Homes Closed: 30+
	Theresa and Pattie Bastian Serving Tacoma, Federal Way, South and East Pierce County Homes Closed: 150+
	Joshua Hall Serving South and East Pierce County Homes Closed: 30+
	Matthew Harber Serving Puyallup, Lakewood, Tacoma and University Place Homes Closed: 20+

Meet Our Gig Harbor & Key Peninsula Agents

Jennie Wetter and Beth Allen are veteran partner agents, but we just added Bryan Hacker.

	Bryan Hacker Serving Gig Harbor & Key Peninsula Homes Closed: 10+
	Jennie Wetter Serving Gig Harbor & Key Peninsula, Poulsbo, Kingston & Bainbridge, Silverdale, Bremerton & Port Orchard Homes Closed: 70+
	Beth Allen Serving Gig Harbor & Key Peninsula, Poulsbo, Kingston & Bainbridge, Silverdale, Bremerton & Port Orchard Homes Closed: 150+

Apply to be a Redfin Partner

Are you a real estate agent with a commitment to customer service and transparency? We’d love to meet you. Become a Redfin partner.

King County

• 12,912 homes were for sale, down 16% from September 2008
• 2,016 homes sold, up from 1,872 in September 2008
• The median sales price was $349,000, down 8% from September 2008

Snohomish County

• 7,070 homes were for sale, down 23% from September 2008
• 755 homes sold, up from 692 in September 2008
• The median sales price was $282,000, down 11% from September 2008

We get these numbers from the NWMLS.

Dig Deeper Into the Trends

These numbers are for King county. To see what’s happening in your neighborhood, check out our stats & trends pages.

Here are the basic Case-Shiller stats for the Seattle area* as of August:

Sixteen of the twenty metro areas tracked by Case-Shiller saw an increase in their respective seasonally-adjusted HPIs between July and August. Only Cleveland, Las Vegas, Charlotte, and Seattle marked seasonally-adjusted drops month-to-month.

Here’s a look at Seattle’s latest tiered data, back through 2000:

Looking at the seasonally-adjusted Case-Shiller tiered data, the low tier did inch up a bit in August, but the middle and high tier both fell. Given that much of this summer’s “bounce” (more of a plateau here in Seattle) has been attributed to the $8,000 tax credit available only to first-time buyers, it is not surprising to see slightly more strength in the low tier.

Here’s a chart of Case-Shiller HPIs for all the markets that Redfin serves:

Here’s our peak decline chart, in which we line up the peak Case-Shiller HPI value for each of Redfin’s markets, so we can see how long each market has been declining, and how much it has dropped from the peak.

Here’s the flip side of the peak decline chart—a graph of just this year, indexed to January = 100%:

According to a Reuters story from earlier today, Robert Shiller has described the sudden spike seen in many markets this summer as potential “bubble territory.” I agree. As I have discussed on these pages in recent months, the sudden and simultaneous nature of this price uptick does not bear any marks of a return to fundamentals, but instead seems to be driven almost entirely by a mad dash for cheap loans (interest rates in the 5s) and free money ($8k tax credit).

I’m a little bit concerned that by interrupting the natural correction of the housing market, recent government intervention is setting us up for even more pain down the road. I hope I am wrong.

Fortunately, since Seattle seems to have missed out on this summer’s mini-frenzy, we may be avoid the worst of the pain, should it come to that.

*[Case-Shiller defines Seattle as the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Metropolitan Statistical Area, which includes all of King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties.]

Of the 2,100+ buyers agents who closed a deal in King & Snohomish Counties, the five of the top seven work at Redfin:

When you work with Redfin, you work with some of the most successful and most active agents in the region. Our agents know what’s going on in the market right now because they spend all of their time serving clients: touring homes, writing offers and closing deals.

These numbers come from the NWMLS, which tracks real estate transactions in Washington state. We ranked buyers’ agents in King & Snohomish Counties first by number of purchases of single-family homes and condominiums in August, then by total dollar amount.

Our Clients Love Our Service

We survey every client and track every transaction in a central customer database. For the surveys we received in September from our clients in the Seattle area:

• 62 clients responded to our customer-satisfaction survey and posted a review online, down from 72 in August.
• 60 of those clients, or 97%, would recommend Redfin to a friend, the same percentage from August.

We ask customers to rate the likelihood that they would recommend Redfin to a friend on a 0-to-10 scale. Customers who rated 6 or higher count as people who would recommend Redfin to a friend.

No longer serving Vashon and Route 2 east of Monroe

We’re no longer offering brokerage services to new clients in some of the more rural areas of King and Snohomish counties. The areas affected by the change are Vashon island, the route 2 corridor east of Monroe in Snohomish county, and the far reaches of eastern King county out towards the pass. We’re doing this because for every client we were able to help in these areas, two clients had much longer wait times to see homes in the closer-in cities and towns. So we’ve made the difficult decision to offer the best experience to the most people which unfortunately means no longer being able to serve some outlying areas.

Pierce County and Federal Way transitioning to Redfin Partners

Starting November 4th, Pierce County and Federal Way will be serviced by Redfin Partners. This year we’ve helped over 325 home-buyers in King county, and only 11 home-buyers in Pierce county. We haven’t built the local expertise in Pierce County that we think you deserve, so we’re partnering with a few great agents with established businesses in the greater Tacoma area to improve the service we offer. Our new partners will give you a wider choice of agents, more local expertise, and access to short sale properties and properties priced below $175,000 that Redfin didn’t service with our own agents. Our partners share our commitment to a no-pressure, service-first real estate experience and still offer a 15% commission rebate. Our partners will be live on Redfin.com and available to help new clients in Pierce County on November 4th. For Redfin clients who have been on a home tour with us or made an offer in the past 90 days, we can still take you on home tours until 11/30/09 and help you complete a purchase until the end of 2009. If you’re a current client and you need to schedule a tour after November 1st, just give us a call at 877-973-3346.

Any questions or concerns about our recent and upcoming changes? We’re all ears.